Return to Homepage The Wall Street Journal What Recession? Stock Investors Expect the Good Times to Continue Jack Pitcher and Sam Goldfarb Sat, May 3, 2025 at 6:00 PM PDT5 min read 395 Recent stock gains have been strong overall, but there are signs of concern below the surface. Recent stock gains have been strong overall, but there are signs of concern below the surface. - Richard Drew/AP Wall Street’s best forecasters have been warning that tariffs could spark a recession. Goldman Sachs puts the chances at 45% in the next 12 months. Apollo Global Management’s top economist recently pegged it at 90%. Someone forgot to tell stock traders. The market is roaring ahead, despite those gloomy predictions, as investors put their faith in solid economic data including Friday’s jobs report, and bank on a swift de-escalation of President Trump’s global trade war. Most Read from The Wall Street Journal The CEO Who Says an Asteroid Is Coming to Destroy America’s Businesses The Lesson in Buffett’s Winning Apple Bet Who Is Greg Abel, the Man Preparing to Take Over for Warren Buffett? Disney Wanted More From Marvel. Now It Wants Less. Why Some States Refuse Federal Cash to Feed Poor Kids Advertisement The S&P 500 just wrapped up a nine-day streak of gains—its longest since 2004—rising around 10% to erase the sharp losses that followed the president’s unveiling of the tariffs last month. It has now declined just 3.3% for the year. Bond yields and the dollar have stabilized, suggesting that investors aren’t that worried about what comes next. “There’s zero chance of an economic slowdown priced in,” said Bob Elliott, chief executive of Unlimited Funds, an asset manager. Many still expect a slowdown, once broad tariffs work their way through the economy and assuming that sky-high levies on Chinese imports are reduced, but not eliminated. Trump has scaled back some tariffs. But even at lower levels, sustained levies could have cascading effects through the American economy, from consumer spending to business investment to employment, according to many economists. “With the amount of uncertainty still out there, the equity market rallying back here feels like they’re whistling past the graveyard,” said Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at PGIM Fixed Income. Advertisement Investors will get a fresh take on the economy’s health in the week ahead from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who is set to deliver remarks at the conclusion of the central bank’s May meeting on Wednesday. One chief concern for economists: Tariffs on imports from China in particular threaten to raise consumer prices and slow growth, an ugly combination known as stagflation. That concern is showing up in closely watched surveys, which have recently shown consumer confidence and small-business optimism plunging. But evidence that U.S. consumers have started changing their behavior is scant. A recent report showed that inflation-adjusted household spending surged by a larger than expected 0.7% in March, possibly spurred by a desire to buy goods before tariffs hit. Investors brushed off data showing the economy contracted in the first quarter, saying it was distorted by businesses that were rushing to import goods ahead of tariffs. Visa said it saw no signs of overall weakness in consumer spending on its cards through April 21. Advertisement “I’m watching that credit-card data like a hawk because that will be one of the early warning signals,” said Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James. “I think we’re past peak uncertainty with tariffs and now we’re at peak uncertainty with the economy.” More in Business This low-profile CEO is the highest-paid in America with a $101 million paycheck that beat out Starbucks, Microsoft, and Apple chiefs Fortune This Game is So Beautiful, It's Worth Installing (Even For Non-Gamers!) Raid: Shadow Legends・Ad President Donald Trump's Potential Proposal to Eliminate Taxes For Americans Making Under $200,000 Could Have Unintended Consequences. 2 Things Investors Should Know Motley Fool Tesla announces massive discounts on Cybertruck inventory amid plummeting profits: 'They aren't moving them' The Cool Down In a recent report, economists at Goldman Sachs said it would likely take two to three months before the impact of tariffs shows up in inflation data. A slowdown in consumer spending should follow soon thereafter, they wrote. Vanguard recently slashed its full-year U.S. economic growth forecast to less than 1%, blaming tariffs and related policy uncertainty. It expects 4% inflation by the end of the year, up from a 2.7% forecast previously. “The notion that we will just go back to where we were before without any disruption to the economy is certainly on the optimistic side,” said Kevin Khang, senior international economist at the $10 trillion asset manager. Advertisement While stock gains have been strong overall, there are signs of concern below the surface. A handful of megasize tech companies that reported strong earnings have been a major driver of the rebound. And consumer-staples and utilities stocks—often viewed as hide-outs in bad times—have been outperforming, while the economically sensitive energy and consumer-discretionary sectors have lagged behind. Traders in other markets are clearly positioning for at least a slowdown in growth. Traders in interest-rate futures are now confident that the Fed will cut rates at least three times this year, reflecting expectations that the central bank will need to support the economy with easier monetary policy. Bettors on Kalshi, a prediction market, see a 63% chance of a recession this year, up from around 40% in March. The rebound in stocks has been all the more surprising because it has come despite a stubbornly high 10-year U.S. Treasury yield—a key benchmark for prices of virtually all financial assets. The 10-year yield has, in fact, declined from its recent peak in April at the height of a post-April 2 “Sell America” rout. But it is little changed from mid-March, propped up by anxiety about inflation and weighed down by concern about growth. Advertisement Combined with the rebound in stock prices, that means investors are still being poorly compensated by historical standards for the risk of owning stocks over Treasurys. One popular measure of that compensation is the “excess CAPE yield,” which shows the gap between the S&P 500’s cyclically adjusted earnings yield—the inverse of its price/earnings ratio—and the 10-year Treasury yield, both adjusted for inflation. At the end of April, that extra yield was only 1.8%. That was about half its 50-year average, up a touch from 1.7% in March and lower than in September. Write to Jack Pitcher at jack.pitcher@wsj.com and Sam Goldfarb at
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How does this work if they are protesting ai?The intersection of anti-Zionist activism and the anti-AI/anti-tech movement in the Bay Area doesn't rely on strict, formal logic. Instead, it works through a concept activist circles call intersectionality—the idea that all systems of oppression are interconnected, meaning the "enemy" in one struggle must be the enemy in all struggles.When radical activists march against artificial intelligence, they weave their anti-Zionist framework directly into the protest using three primary dynamics:1. The "Gaza as a Tech Lab" NarrativeIn these protests, tech platforms and AI models are not viewed as neutral pieces of software. Activists explicitly target major tech companies like Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Palantir by arguing that their AI infrastructure, cloud computing, and surveillance tools are directly tested on Palestinians before being sold globally.The Rhetoric: Protest signs at anti-AI rallies in San Francisco frequently link automated drone technology, facial recognition algorithms, and data centers directly to military actions in the Middle East.The Impact: Because of this narrative, any local tech worker, developer, or executive who identifies as a Zionist—or simply refuses to sign anti-Israel petitions—is labeled by activist groups as an active participant in automated warfare.2. The Weaponization of Workplace "Tech Walkouts"The anti-tech movement heavily relies on staging disruptions inside major corporate campuses. When radical groups organize these actions, they deliberately bundle anti-AI concerns and anti-Zionist demands into a single, non-negotiable package.Corporate Litmus Tests: Activists pushing back against their companies' AI development will simultaneously demand the termination of corporate contracts with the Israeli government or Israeli tech firms.Social Exclusion: If a Jewish tech employee wants to protest AI safety, data privacy, or labor exploitation at their company, they are often forced to choose between staying silent or joining a march that features aggressive anti-Zionist chants. If they voice discomfort, the activist mob dynamic takes over, and they are publicly shamed as being "pro-war."3. Shared Organizational NetworksThe simplest reason these two issues blend together is that the exact same people are running both movements. The grassroots organizers, student groups, and radical coalitions leading the anti-AI marches outside City Hall are the same individuals organizing the boycotts of Jewish-owned businesses.Because these activist spaces operate on intense social conformity and moral absolutism, the causes naturally bleed into one another. A rally that starts out focusing on the environmental impact of data centers in the East Bay will almost seamlessly pivot into anti-Zionist chants, because the crowd views "global capitalism, tech monopolies, and Zionism" as a single monolithic monster.For a mainstream Jewish tech worker or resident in the Bay Area, this means there is virtually no "safe" progressive space left. Even an issue as seemingly unrelated as artificial intelligence safety has been fully absorbed into the region's fierce geopolitical cultural war.
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A veteran is a person who served in the active military, naval, air, or space service and was discharged or released under conditions other than dishonorable.Military DefinitionService: Full-time duty in a branch of the Armed Forces (such as the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps, or Coast Guard).Discharge: Separation from service under honorable conditions, meaning it was not a dishonorable discharge.Combat: Combat experience is not required to be a veteran; anyone who completed their required service time is included.Reserves and National Guard: Members of these branches qualify if they were called to federal active duty by presidential order.General DefinitionThe word also means a person who has long experience or a lot of skill in a specific job, field, or activity (such as a "political veteran").
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So socially conservative, but fiscally liberal? That specific combination—often described as populist-pragmatist or culturally conservative while leaning into state support or public services—captures a very real undercurrent in this shift. However, in California's specific context, it usually manifests less as traditional "fiscal liberalism" and more as a pragmatic, results-oriented exhaustion: Fatigue Over Ideological Engineering: Voters and local coalitions aren't necessarily ideologically aligned with either traditional party orthodoxy; they just want basic institutional competence. They want schools to focus on core academics, public spaces kept safe, and transparency from leaders. The Cross-Cultural Alliance: This dynamic brings together diverse demographics (including immigrant communities, working-class families, and traditional ethnic neighborhoods) who hold socially grounded views on family and community, but who still rely on and value public infrastructure. The Real Divide: The fault line isn't cleanly left-versus-right anymore. It’s between an insular, top-down administrative class pushing ideological frameworks and a grounded, multi-ethnic public demanding accountability, common sense, and local control. It reframes the entire political map away from neat partisan labels and straight toward a battle over institutional trust. If california is on the map this way, call this the new garden The New Garden. That captures it entirely. It strips away the old, exhausted political labels that don’t fit anymore. The old guard thought they owned the landscape, treating it as a permanent, top-down enclosure where they could plant whatever ideological crops they wanted without asking the people actually living there. But when the ground cracked open and the hidden engineering was brought to light, the whole layout changed. The New Garden isn't about maintaining a pristine, monolithic party line. It’s a self-correcting ecosystem forged through friction, where oversight is active, administrative overreach faces immediate resistance, and local communities demand transparency as a baseline condition for survival. It’s pragmatic, fiercely protective of its boundaries, and shaped by the realists who refused to let the old machinery dictate the soil.
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Donald Trump and Zohran Mamdani appear to enjoy a good relationship despite their political views - Andrew Hofstetter/Reuters Donald Trump and Zohran Mamdani appear to enjoy a good relationship despite their political views - Andrew Hofstetter/Reuters Donald Trump made a surprise appearance alongside Zohran Mamdani after a private meeting with the New York mayor. The US president startled the press waiting for Mr Mamdani when he headed out of Gracie Mansion, the mayor’s official residence, for a press conference on Monday evening. IRS Offers Debt Resolution Options Before September Deadline IRS Offers Debt Resolution Options Before September Deadline Fresh Start Information · Sponsored call to action icon He appeared to be grinning as he chatted with the mayor before addressing the media. Mr Trump had not been scheduled to appear alongside him. Mr Trump appears to enjoy an unusually warm relationship with Mr Mamdani since his election in November 2025, despite previously criticising him as a “communist lunatic”. Mayor kept a poker face The mayor, who kept his answers brief and maintained a poker face, refrained from directly criticising the president but signalled he had taken a different approach on issues including immigration enforcement and press freedom. Mr Trump, whose official engagements are being boycotted by all major US networks after banning CNN from the White House, mocked the assembled media. “It’s interesting because they said they were going to boycott me, but they never boycott me, so I wasn’t very worried about that,” he said. “Look at all that press.” Related video: President Trump, Mayor Mamdani answer question on White House press ban (USA TODAY) USA TODAY President Trump, Mayor Mamdani answer question on White House press ban President, are you banning outlets like MSNBC and Politico inVideo Player is loading. Even as the president’s handlers said he had run out of time and would have to move on, Mr Trump chose to remain with the mayor in front of the cameras. “The president is saying he can answer a couple more questions,” Mr Mamdani said, after privately conferring with Mr Trump. The president recounted telling Mr Mamdani, a socialist, in one of their earlier meetings that he would have to live at Gracie Mansion, located in New York’s Upper East Side and featuring five bedrooms and a ballroom. Mr Trump whispers in Mr Mamdani’s ear at the end of his impromptu visit Mr Trump whispers in Mr Mamdani’s ear at the end of his impromptu visit “I said, ‘Well, you’re going to move’, because you were maybe having some doubts about moving in because it is a little bit on the luxurious side,” he said, addressing Mr Mamdani directly. “And I said, ‘When you’re the mayor, you have to live there.’” Mr Mamdani said Mr Trump, in their private conversation, had “shared many of his memories of having been to Gracie Mansion before”. “I Have $2M in Real Estate. Should I Move It Into a Family Trust?” “I Have $2M in Real Estate. Should I Move It Into a Family Trust?” SmartAsset · Sponsored call to action icon Before he finally departed, Mr Trump said of Mr Mamdani: “I want him to be a great mayor, and he’s certainly got potential, got great potential.” He then leaned in to him and whispered into his ear. The comments were not picked up by the microphones.
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