We love ourselves too often and need reach out much more often. It is a social responsibility and it effects the environment also.
Return to Homepage The Wall Street Journal What Recession? Stock Investors Expect the Good Times to Continue Jack Pitcher and Sam Goldfarb Sat, May 3, 2025 at 6:00 PM PDT5 min read 395 Recent stock gains have been strong overall, but there are signs of concern below the surface. Recent stock gains have been strong overall, but there are signs of concern below the surface. - Richard Drew/AP Wall Street’s best forecasters have been warning that tariffs could spark a recession. Goldman Sachs puts the chances at 45% in the next 12 months. Apollo Global Management’s top economist recently pegged it at 90%. Someone forgot to tell stock traders. The market is roaring ahead, despite those gloomy predictions, as investors put their faith in solid economic data including Friday’s jobs report, and bank on a swift de-escalation of President Trump’s global trade war. Most Read from The Wall Street Journal The CEO Who Says an Asteroid Is Coming to Destroy America’s Businesses The Lesson in Buffett’s Winning Apple Bet Who Is Greg Abel, the Man Preparing to Take Over for Warren Buffett? Disney Wanted More From Marvel. Now It Wants Less. Why Some States Refuse Federal Cash to Feed Poor Kids Advertisement The S&P 500 just wrapped up a nine-day streak of gains—its longest since 2004—rising around 10% to erase the sharp losses that followed the president’s unveiling of the tariffs last month. It has now declined just 3.3% for the year. Bond yields and the dollar have stabilized, suggesting that investors aren’t that worried about what comes next. “There’s zero chance of an economic slowdown priced in,” said Bob Elliott, chief executive of Unlimited Funds, an asset manager. Many still expect a slowdown, once broad tariffs work their way through the economy and assuming that sky-high levies on Chinese imports are reduced, but not eliminated. Trump has scaled back some tariffs. But even at lower levels, sustained levies could have cascading effects through the American economy, from consumer spending to business investment to employment, according to many economists. “With the amount of uncertainty still out there, the equity market rallying back here feels like they’re whistling past the graveyard,” said Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at PGIM Fixed Income. Advertisement Investors will get a fresh take on the economy’s health in the week ahead from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who is set to deliver remarks at the conclusion of the central bank’s May meeting on Wednesday. One chief concern for economists: Tariffs on imports from China in particular threaten to raise consumer prices and slow growth, an ugly combination known as stagflation. That concern is showing up in closely watched surveys, which have recently shown consumer confidence and small-business optimism plunging. But evidence that U.S. consumers have started changing their behavior is scant. A recent report showed that inflation-adjusted household spending surged by a larger than expected 0.7% in March, possibly spurred by a desire to buy goods before tariffs hit. Investors brushed off data showing the economy contracted in the first quarter, saying it was distorted by businesses that were rushing to import goods ahead of tariffs. Visa said it saw no signs of overall weakness in consumer spending on its cards through April 21. Advertisement “I’m watching that credit-card data like a hawk because that will be one of the early warning signals,” said Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James. “I think we’re past peak uncertainty with tariffs and now we’re at peak uncertainty with the economy.” More in Business This low-profile CEO is the highest-paid in America with a $101 million paycheck that beat out Starbucks, Microsoft, and Apple chiefs Fortune This Game is So Beautiful, It's Worth Installing (Even For Non-Gamers!) Raid: Shadow Legends・Ad President Donald Trump's Potential Proposal to Eliminate Taxes For Americans Making Under $200,000 Could Have Unintended Consequences. 2 Things Investors Should Know Motley Fool Tesla announces massive discounts on Cybertruck inventory amid plummeting profits: 'They aren't moving them' The Cool Down In a recent report, economists at Goldman Sachs said it would likely take two to three months before the impact of tariffs shows up in inflation data. A slowdown in consumer spending should follow soon thereafter, they wrote. Vanguard recently slashed its full-year U.S. economic growth forecast to less than 1%, blaming tariffs and related policy uncertainty. It expects 4% inflation by the end of the year, up from a 2.7% forecast previously. “The notion that we will just go back to where we were before without any disruption to the economy is certainly on the optimistic side,” said Kevin Khang, senior international economist at the $10 trillion asset manager. Advertisement While stock gains have been strong overall, there are signs of concern below the surface. A handful of megasize tech companies that reported strong earnings have been a major driver of the rebound. And consumer-staples and utilities stocks—often viewed as hide-outs in bad times—have been outperforming, while the economically sensitive energy and consumer-discretionary sectors have lagged behind. Traders in other markets are clearly positioning for at least a slowdown in growth. Traders in interest-rate futures are now confident that the Fed will cut rates at least three times this year, reflecting expectations that the central bank will need to support the economy with easier monetary policy. Bettors on Kalshi, a prediction market, see a 63% chance of a recession this year, up from around 40% in March. The rebound in stocks has been all the more surprising because it has come despite a stubbornly high 10-year U.S. Treasury yield—a key benchmark for prices of virtually all financial assets. The 10-year yield has, in fact, declined from its recent peak in April at the height of a post-April 2 “Sell America” rout. But it is little changed from mid-March, propped up by anxiety about inflation and weighed down by concern about growth. Advertisement Combined with the rebound in stock prices, that means investors are still being poorly compensated by historical standards for the risk of owning stocks over Treasurys. One popular measure of that compensation is the “excess CAPE yield,” which shows the gap between the S&P 500’s cyclically adjusted earnings yield—the inverse of its price/earnings ratio—and the 10-year Treasury yield, both adjusted for inflation. At the end of April, that extra yield was only 1.8%. That was about half its 50-year average, up a touch from 1.7% in March and lower than in September. Write to Jack Pitcher at jack.pitcher@wsj.com and Sam Goldfarb at
Not influenced by the price of cheese: China ‘evaluating’ US offer to engage in trade negotiations Comments come a week after Trump claimed talks were already taking place Amy Hawkins Fri 2 May 2025 06.55 EDT Share Beijing is “evaluating” an offer from the US to engage in trade negotiations, the Chinese government has said, a week after Donald Trump claimed talks were already under way. China’s commerce ministry said on Friday: “The US has recently taken the initiative on many occasions to convey information to China through relevant parties, saying it hopes to talk with China.” On Thursday, influential commentators in China said the country was ready to engage in talks. The suggestion that Beijing was potentially willing to negotiate with Washington – along with a better than expected report on US jobs - sent markets higher on Friday on both sides of the Atlantic. Ren Yi, a nationalist blogger who writes under the nickname Chairman Rabbit, wrote that he had learned from sources that the US had “frequently and proactively contacted the Chinese side through various channels, hoping to negotiate with the Chinese government on economic and trade issues”. China has denied claims made by US officials that talks were already under way, or that China had initiated them. Trump said last week that Xi Jinping, China’s leader, had called him. China’s foreign ministry accused the US of “misleading the public” on the status of negotiations. Ren wrote: “If China had given in and taken the initiative to give in to the United States, then naturally there would not have been the United States taking the initiative to contact China.” Containers are stacked on the deck of cargo ship One Manhattan in New Jersey. Why is Trump ending the ‘de minimis’ tariff loophole on low-value imports? Read more The commerce ministry said on Friday that Washington needed to show “sincerity” in negotiations and that it should not engage in “coercion and extortion”. China has repeatedly accused the US of bullying in its approach to trade policies. The two countries have been at loggerheads since Trump launched a new US-China trade war in early April, with US tariffs on Chinese goods now at 145% while China’s retaliatory tariffs have reached 125%. But although neither side wants to be seen to blink first, the US and China have already introduced a number of exceptions to their respective tariffs to soften the blow of a trade war that risks upending the global economy. Chinese factory activity slowed in April. The statistics bureau blamed “sharp changes in [China’s] external environment” for the decline. This week Xi called on officials to adjust to changes in the international environment, although he did not mention the US by name. Elsewhere, Chinese propaganda has been more explicit. This week the foreign ministry released a video that accused the US of bullying and said that bowing to such behaviour would be like “drinking poison”. A US executive order to close a multibillion-dollar tariff loophole, known as “de minimis”, came into effect on Friday. The ending of the de minimis regime, which allowed low-value goods to be shipped to the US without paying customs fees, primarily affects Chinese exporters. Scott Bessent said this week he was confident that China would want to reach a deal. The US treasury secretary said: “First, we need to de-escalate, and then over time, we will start focusing on a larger trade deal.”
On the inside what did I learn about the Russo Ukrainian war? The Russian's were very reactive in a way that it looked like a policy, partly in order to intimidate. Complaints were issued regarding the success of Ukraine as if to gain sympathy. The conclusion is that Russian Strategy is paper tiger to some degree, and in the end that deception may have consequences. Here Ukraine repels bold Russian assault in fierce frontline battle ©The Daily Digest Ukrainian forces have successfully repelled a major Russian assault near the embattled city of Kupyansk, in what military officials are calling a critical defensive victory. The attack, launched across open terrain in a risky frontal push, ended in failure for Russian troops who were met with fierce resistance and overwhelming firepower. The attempted breakthrough near Kupyansk is part of a broader pattern of escalated Russian offensives in the region, but Ukraine’s ability to hold the line highlights the resilience and preparedness of its defenders. Military analysts say the engagement serves as a reminder of the brutal nature of the fighting and the strategic importance of controlling key terrain in the Kharkiv region. Soldiers from the Ukrainian 43rd Separate Mechanized Brigade reportedly intercepted a Russian armored attack column as it crossed an open field littered with mines to the north of the Ukrainian town of Stepova Novoselivka in Kharkiv Oblast. Artillery, 155-mm cluster munitions, and drones were used to quickly destroy advancing Russian forces. The 43rd Separate Mechanized Brigade stated Russian forces suffered 38 casualties in the attack and lost several vehicles. Russian forces attacked over a relatively open and hilly area. Such an open attack was a perfect opportunity for Ukrainian drone operators to target both Russian vehicles and infantry with artillery, and use their first-person view (FPV) kamikaze drones in the fight. “Kupyansk and Kupyansk-Vuzlovy are essential to Russian plans primarily due to their logistics value. They offer a vital base for deploying military personnel, setting up supply warehouses, and establishing command centers,” Militarnyi added.
Victor Bigham 🇺🇸 @Ravious101 · 1h JUST IN: President Donald Trump announces he is building a new ball room at the White House that could cost millions... ... and he's PAYING FOR IT HIMSELF! President Trump: "We're going to make and build a ballroom, which they've wanted for probably a hundred years at the White House. And it'll be a world-class, beautiful ballroom." Reporter: "A ballroom that could cost millions of dollars. He says he will pay for it himself." President Trump: "I'm not gonna ask the government for money. I'll fund it, and I'm sure we'll have some donations too."
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